Zhang Longqiang, President of Metallurgical Industry Information Standards Research Institute: Looking ahead to the second half of the year, from the policy perspective, the economic trend will mainly depend on the epidemic prevention and control and the recovery progress on the demand side.First, we will ensure the basic order of the economy through the “six stabilizations” and “six guarantees” policies and measures. Proactive fiscal policy will play the main role, and investment in infrastructure construction, including new infrastructure, will be the main channel.Second, prudent monetary policy will remain flexible and appropriate, and structural and precise monetary spending will play a more important role.Third, the construction of new urbanization and the renovation of old urban residential areas will support the steady growth of real estate sales and investment.Fourth, a number of government departments and local governments have introduced intensive policies to promote consumption and unleash the potential of domestic demand, with the focus on replacing, recycling and disposing of household appliances, automobiles and other bulk commodities.In general, China’s economy will continue to improve in the second half of the year, fixed asset investment will grow steadily, manufacturing investment will also hit the bottom and pick up, steel market demand recovery is a highly likely event.Construction steel is still the main driving force for steel demand growth, this year’s annual crude steel output may exceed 1 billion tons.
From the perspective of the high-quality development of China’s steel industry and the development of steel enterprises to create new advantages, the opportunities outweigh the challenges.
From the perspective of challenges, first, production capacity was released quickly, and steel supply exceeded market demand.Second, the global economic recession, the increase of international environmental instability and uncertainty, steel exports under pressure;Third, the price of iron ore is still high, seriously engulfing the benefits of steel enterprises;Fourth, in the implementation of financial support, tax and fee reduction, import and export policies, steel enterprises still have many problems to solve in coordination.
From the perspective of opportunities, first, the widely followed Measures for the Implementation of Capacity Replacement in the Iron and Steel Industry will be released soon. The new measures will encourage mergers and reorganizations and guide the development of electric steelmaking through differentiated measures, further prohibit new production capacity, and promote layout optimization, structural adjustment, transformation and upgrading.Second, we will take actions to guide high-quality development standards for steel and iron, and improve the basic capacity of the steel industry and the quality of its products.Third, various localities have issued policies and measures to promote the digital transformation of steel enterprises.
It can be seen that with the continuous optimization of regular epidemic prevention and control measures, the macro policy effect will gradually release.As long as China’s steel industry maintains strategic focus, sticks to supply-side structural reform, and takes high-quality development of the industry as the goal of all its work, it will surely achieve sustained and healthy development.
