In early November, the cold and hot rolled coil market showed a good running trend, with fair market trading and steadily rising prices.Steel traders shipment more smoothly, the market generally expressed caution about the future.It is expected that the market price of cold and hot rolled coil will run high in the short term.Li Zhongshuang, general manager of Shanghai Ruikun Metal Materials Co., LTD, said in an interview with China Metallurgical News on Nov. 13.
According to Li Zhongshuang, in November’s first trading day (November 2), the Shanghai market’s hot and cold rolling coil prices saw a rise in the opening, intraday rise.On the same day, the price of cold-rolled coil rose by 10 yuan/ton ~ 50 yuan/ton, while the price of hot-rolled coil rose by 20 yuan/ton ~ 30 yuan/ton.In the following several days, the Shanghai market of cold and hot rolled coil prices rose steadily.Compared with the beginning of November, as of November 13, Shanghai Ansteel cold rolled coil price of 1.0 mm production by 50 yuan/ton, to 5050 yuan/ton;The price of 5.5 mm ×1500 mm ×C hot coil (Q235B) increased by 100 yuan/ton to 4050 yuan/ton.
Li Zhongshuang believes that the market price of cold and hot rolled coil cannot rise without the support of the characteristics of “weak supply and strong demand”.It is mainly manifested in the following aspects:
First, hot and cold rolled coil demand is still strong toughness.At present, the production and sales of automobiles, home appliances and other downstream industries are increasing, and the demand for cold and hot rolled coil is increasing.
On November 11, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) held its monthly information conference.In October, China’s auto production and sales reached 2.552 million and 2.573 million vehicles respectively, up 0.9% and 0.1% month-on-month and 11% and 12.5% year-on-year respectively, according to the data.Up to October, China’s auto production and sales have shown “double growth” for seven consecutive months, including sales growth of more than 10% for six consecutive months.The relevant person in charge of China Automobile Association said that with the continuous strengthening of consumer confidence in the later period and the promotion of “Double 11” shopping activities, auto shows and new energy vehicles to the countryside, the recovery of auto market demand will still maintain a stable trend and bring room for growth of cold and hot rolled coil demand.At the same time, home appliance industry is also accelerating recovery, production and sales, export orders continue to increase.This year, under the influence of COVID-19 epidemic, the “homestead economy” has greatly increased the demand for small household appliances, as well as the strong demand for refrigerators, washing machines and other electrical appliances, which has led to an increase in the demand for cold and hot rolled coil plates.
In addition, the steel structure manufacturing industry to the plate demand.According to Li Zhongshuang, since June this year, the overall increase of steel structure manufacturing industry has reached 4% to 6%, the annual steel volume is expected to increase by 10%, or in the fourth quarter to support the high market price of cold and hot rolled coil.
Second, the cold and hot rolled coil market supply is tight, generally showing the characteristics of “weak supply and strong demand”.As a result of entering autumn and winter, local environmental protection production limit increased, coupled with the end of the year more steel mills for routine maintenance, cold and hot rolling coil production has been reduced.Data from China Iron and Steel Association shows that in early November, key statistics show that the average daily output of steel enterprises is 2.1461 million tons of crude steel, 1.9077 million tons of pig iron and 201.42 million tons of steel, down 1.33%, 0.73% and 4% respectively from the previous month.According to statistics from industry institutions, steel inventories in 35 major markets fell by 6.16% last week (Nov. 9-13) compared with the previous week.Among them, the inventory of hot rolled coil reached 2.7063 million tons, which decreased by 73,100 tons quarter-on-week or 2.63%.The inventory of cold-rolled coil reached 1.1134 million tons, which decreased by 85 million tons on a week-on-week basis and decreased by 0.76%.According to Li Zhongshuang, the later period of cold and hot rolled coil market supply or will reduce, and thereby alleviate the contradiction between supply and demand, is conducive to cold and hot rolled coil market price maintain high.
Third, under the rigid cost support, the steel mill “price” willingness is strong.Recently, iron ore, coke, scrap steel and other raw steel fuel market prices remain high.The price of imported iron ore (62 per cent grade) surged to a six-year high of $128.9 a tonne at one point.Coke market price has risen by 250 yuan/ton since August;Scrap prices are also rising.Affected by this, the production cost of steel mill rises.In order to alleviate the cost pressure, the steel mill “price” is willing to be strong.A few days ago, a number of steel mills issued in December hot and cold rolled coil ex-factory price, are mainly adjusted above, some steel mills will even hot and cold rolled coil ex-factory price increase 100 yuan/ton.Li Zhongshuang said, with the rigid cost support, hot and cold rolled coil market price is easy to rise difficult to fall.
